Long Term Investments
Bitcoin’s Moon mission!
Bitcoin saw a strong surge from 70k to 80k just four days after the election, aligning with our forecast that Trumps election would catalyze the next bullish phase.
Catalysts Behind the Rally
President Trumps pro-crypto take has increased speculation about a potential national Bitcoin strategic reserve, fueling extreme market momentum. If introduced, such a policy framework would not only mark a turning point in the regulatory landscape, but also pave the way for broader industry maturation and heightened global confidence in cryptocurrency markets.Michael Saylor made a significant market impact by purchasing $5.4 billion worth of Bitcoin within a week, though this aggressive buying was not able to break the 100k sell wall. Saylor is likely to buy more since 100k in his eyes is an undervalued entry point given anticipated market developments, and because he still has over $10 billion more capital to raise through ATM and bond offerings. With continued buying pressure of thousands of Bitcoin daily by Saylor, institutional investors, ETFs, and even sovereign entities, genuine demand is laying the foundation for a sustainable and strong bull market for Bitcoin.
Institutional and Policy Support
A key development was the appointment of Scott Bessent as the new Secretary of the Treasury. Bessent's dual identity as a experienced Wall Street figure and Bitcoin investor underscores his potential to shape a favorable regulatory landscape for the cryptocurrency sector.
Market Dynamics and Insights
Profit taking by short-term holders during Bitcoins rise to 99.8k showed the intensity of market activity. Since January 24, Bitcoin has absorbed $224 billion in selling pressure with $54 billion in November alone.
Despite strong resistance near the 100k level, the demand from major market participants remains very robust. The presence of a crypto supportive administration is set to further stimulate adoption in the coming year.
Ethereum's Time to Shine
With increasing enterprise adoption of blockchain technology, a booming Layer-2 ecosystem, and institutional interest in staking yields, Ethereum’s network fundamentals suggest that its underperformance may be short-lived. While underperforming Solana and Bitcoin since the bull run started, it gained upside momentum relative to BTC and SOL toward the end of the month. As investors recognize Ethereum's role in the tokenization future, we believe its time has arrived. While both ETH and SOL are promising long-term plays, Ethereum has the potential to outperform Solana in the long run.
Liquidity and Market Outlook
Liquidity conditions were not ideal this month but remained at sustainable levels. Remember, in speculative markets even strong fundamentals can’t guarantee future outcomes. GLI has traded sideways as central banks maintain tight policies. The Treasury is expected to inject $150 billion by the end of December based on official statements, though that figure could rise due to the coming January 1 debt ceiling. We anticipate increased liquidity heading into the new year which is bullish for the markets overall.
Looking Ahead
Historically every red November has been followed by a red December, while every green November has led to a green December. This historical pattern supports our bullish outlook. Together with real demand from the above mentioned cases, breaking ATH in early December seems highly probable. Major news could break soon about a nation state purchasing Bitcoin! December holds significant potential, and we remain bullish heading into year-end. We will of course share any portfolio changes as they happen.
